Trucking Aftermarket Poised for Growth Through 2022
MacKay & Co. is seeing growth for the U.S. aftermarket out to 2022. Photo: Creative Commons
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In total the U.S. aftermarket for Class 6 to 8 trucks and trailers is up 3.1% to $30.4 billion driven by increases in population and utilization, said John Blodgett, vice president of sales and marketing for MacKay & Company, speaking during Heavy Duty Aftermarket Dialogue in Las Vegas. The Canadian aftermarket is up 9.2% to $4.2 billion driven by increases in pricing, average annual miles driven and utilization.
Aftermarket demand depends in part on new vehicle sales. U.S. Class 6-7 retail sales were up 10% in 2017 and trailer sales were up 2%, but Class 8 sales were down slightly (-0.5%)
For 2018, Ken Griswold, director of market strategy and sales at MacKay, said the company expects U.S. retail sales of Class 6 and 7 trucks to be up 2% to 135,000, Class 8 sales to be up 0.4% to 237,000 and trailer sales to be 280,000, down 1%.
For Canada, retail sales in Class 6 and 7 were up 16%, Class 8 sales up 11% and trailer sales up 10%. MacKay’s forecast for 2018 is for Class 6 and 7 retail sales to be down 2%, Class 8 and trailer sales to each be down 6%.
Looking further out, MacKay & Co. expects the total U.S. operating population to increase in most categories. In 2022, the company forecasts a 16% increase for Class 6, an 8.1% for Class 8, and an 8% increase for trailers. They expect Class 7 sales to be down 7%.
For Canada, the outlook is not as rosy. MacKay forecasts a 10% decrease for the Class 6 operating universe, 3% decrease for Class 7, 0.6% decrease for Class 8 and 1.8% decrease for trailers.
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