Will New GHG Emissions Prompt a Prebuy?

7 Oct by Vitaliy Dadalyan

Will New GHG Emissions Prompt a Prebuy?

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Unlike previous emissions regulations that actually cut fuel economy, new GHG regs are making trucks more fuel efficient than ever. Photo: Daimler Trucks North America

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Unlike previous emissions regulations that actually cut fuel economy, new GHG regs are making trucks more fuel efficient than ever. Photo: Daimler Trucks North America

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A new report says the industry will likely see a pre-emission boom in Class 8 truck sales in 2019 and 2020, before a sharp drop into 2021 — but others say this time around is different.

The prebuy is predicted in the new North American On-Highway Commercial Vehicle Engine Outlook report by Americas Commercial Transportation (ACT) Research and Rhein Associates.

“New and revised engine introductions over the next few years, together with emission impacts, will lead to changes in demand,” said Tom Rhein, President of Rhein Associates.

Total North American Class 8 truck production peaked in 2015, ACT noted, and it’s predicting lower demand in 2016 and 2017 followed by recovery leading up to that pre-buy.

However, not everyone is convinced that we will see the same type of prebuy that we did ahead of the 2007 emissions regulations, which was driven by uncertainty about selective catalytic reduction technology

At the recent American Trucking Associations’ Management Conference & Exhibition in Las Vegas, Martin Daum, head of Daimler Trucks North America, said the new Phase 2 greenhouse gas fuel/economy regulations offer manufacturers more flexibility to achieve the required targets, as well as a longer lead time for developing technologies that will be reliable.

“It’s not that you have to do something tomorrow. so you have time to really study, plan, test, push. Long term planning gets rewarded. And it gives us certainty, with clear targets between now and 2030 for each vehicle and engine category.”

Daum said this should help avoid the disruptive pre-buy cycles that plagued the emissions regulations of the 2000s, noting that we are still seeing the “aftershocks” from the huge oscillation after the 2006 prebuy.

Similarly, when asked about the likelihood …Read the rest of this story

Source:: http://www.truckinginfo.com/channel/fleet-management/news/story/2016/10/will-new-ghg-emissions-prompt-a-prebuy.aspx