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“Sometimes growing stronger is also the next thing that leads to the next recession,” said Dr. Larry Davidson (pictured). Photo: Evan Lockridge
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“Sometimes growing stronger is also the next thing that leads to the next recession,” said Dr. Larry Davidson (pictured). Photo: Evan Lockridge
">Trying to narrow down the single, biggest point made at the annual FTR Transportation Conference, held in mid-September in Indianapolis, would be a fool's errand. That's because the 13th annual event was so content rich, covering everything from the economy and freight to equipment and everything in between.
So what were my key takeaways? Well, I found three.
Expect a ‘sauntering' economy to continueDr. Larry Davidson, professor emeritus of business economics and public policy at Indiana University's Kelley School of Business, was both pessimistic and optimistic.
On the downside, he said, the economy is stuck in what he called “secular stagnation.” In other words, “we are going to have to put up with growth that's like we've had recently.”
While he described the pace of economic growth as “sauntering,” the good news was that he doesn't see recession as likely. It would take an unexpected shock to push us into a recession, he said, like the financial mess that led to the Great Recession or the quadrupling of oil prices in the 1970s. So far nothing like that has happened, and he believes the U.S. has the flexibility to overcome many problems.
Hurricanes could affect GDP growthFTR senior analyst Noel Perry said Hurricanes Harvey and Irma could shave half of a percentage point off overall economic growth in the third quarter of 2017.
Perry noted that Texas and Florida represent about 15% of the entire U.S. economy, ranking second and fourth, respectively. The two states also make up about 7% of trucking activity in a normal day and affect another 4% as important parts of truck trip circuits.
Since analysts before the hurricane were expecting GDP growth to clock in at an annual rate of 2%