Author: Vitaliy Dadalyan

FTR: Tight Capacity, Rate Increases Projected to Continue

FTR's Market Demand Index hit a record high the first week of 2018.

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Truckload capacity will remain tight and rates high, but both may moderate somewhat as market forces come into play, according to FTR analysts. The ELD mandate is still a wild card, with the economy and tax reform playing a part as well.

FTR's Market Demand Index, which measures how many available trucks there are vs. how many loads on the spot market, really accelerated once we got past the first quarter of 2017 after a somewhat depressed 2016, explained FTR Chief Operating Officer Jonathan Starks in a recent webinar.

A spike occurred after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and again right at the end of the year. In the first week of 2018, it hit record levels. In fact, Starks said, “We hit record levels in four of the last 15 weeks of this index.”

Rates showed a similar pattern, coming down a bit in the first week of the year but still “very elevated,” Starks said. Although they are expected to come down some, FTR still sees a very strong spot freight market going forward.

“I think there's perhaps no more striking indicator of what's happening in trucking than what's happening in rates," noted Avery Vise, FTR's new vice president of trucking research. "The spot market began to turn about a year ago and has soared since." As is typical, he added contract rates becan to move higher as well, albeit on a delayed basis.

"A robust spot market will continue to translate into higher contract rates as carriers and shippers adjust to a new normal," Vise said. FTR projects that through 2018, spot market rates will continue to grow, but not as fast as during 2017. Likewise, contract rates should accelerate through 2018 before tapering off.

Vise emphasized that while ...Read the rest of this story

Economic Watch: Annual Retail Sales Best in 3 Years, Inflation Threat Eases

Retail sales ended 2017 on a high note, while price inflation at both the retail and wholesale levels are of so little threat to the economy, some analysts are wondering if they will keep a lid on planned interest rate hikes.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that retail sales in the U.S rose 0.4% in December from the month before, meeting a consensus estimate from analysts, and following an upwardly revised November surge of 0.9%.

Compared to a year earlier, December retail sales were up 5.4%. For all of 2017, retail sales were 4.2% higher than 2016, the biggest annual hike in three years. That compares to a 3.2% rise in 2016 over 2015.

Core sales, those excluding food services, autos, gasoline and building materials, rose 0.3%, as expected – but the prior month's advance was revised sharply higher to 1.4% from 0.8%. Core sales spiked to an 8.9% annual rate in the fourth quarter, the most in the post-recession period.

“While the increase in spending wasn't as broadly based as one would like, the show of strength in recent months is a testament to the strong financial tailwinds, relating to wealth, income and credit, pushing on consumer backs,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Financial Group.

The report also showed online sellers and other non-store retailers extended their dominance in December, increased 1.2% after a 4.2% spike in November, at the expense of traditional department stores which reported a 1.1% decline. Also, furniture sales jumped 7.5% in the year, reflecting strength in home sales, Guatieri noted.

“With consumers and businesses showing few signs of letting up their relentless pace and bound to get a fillip from tax cuts in the new year, the Federal Reserve has little choice but to raise [interest rates] in March,” Guatieri said.

However, not everyone agrees with his take on ...Read the rest of this story