Atl-Fuels in the Age of Cheap Oil
Is cheaper even the issue?
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Is cheaper even the issue?
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In 2016, it’s far from simple to decide whether to switch from diesel to an alternative fuel or powertrain (electric or hybrid). It was easier to run the numbers and come to a conclusion one way or the other when the price of diesel fuel was on the rise and promising developments in alternative power technology were arriving one after another.
Not four years ago, predictions were made that natural gas alone would fuel up to 20% of new heavy-duty trucks by 2020. Now, though, thanks to everything from lower diesel prices to fleet concerns about natural-gas payback and fueling infrastructure costs, and a new push for electric zero-emissions vehicles, those predictions look to have been too optimistic.
The slide in the price of diesel fuel over the past two years has complicated the decision for many fleets. The question for them is not whether diesel prices will rise again, but how soon and how sharply. On the other hand, fleets that have invested heavily in natural gas vehicles and fueling infrastructure are unlikely to change horses quickly. And they tend to appreciate the price stability of natural-gas fuel vs. diesel’s price volatility.
The upcoming federal greenhouse gas/fuel economy rules are something of a wild card looking further out. The final Phase 2 rules, released last month, will cover 2021 to 2027-model-year trucks and tractors and 2018-to-2027 MY trailers. New, stepped engine standards will require a 4% carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction from 2017 to 2027. And Phase 2 will also address natural gas vehicles and engines, including emissions from the crankcase and LNG boil-off, regarded as two of the largest sources of on-vehicle methane emissions.
The impact of new rules aside, lowering fuel spend has not been the only reason truck fleets have chosen to convert to alternatives. Some opt …Read the rest of this story
