Analysis: Look Deeper Into GDP Numbers for Better Trucking Insight
Photo: istockphoto.com/rimeimages
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Photo: istockphoto.com/rimeimages
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As you’re reading this, one of first and most closely watched indicators of the overall economic performance of the American economy has been issued. And while it’s the first major reading of how conditions are shaping up for 2017, you are best advised not to read too much into the figures, be it good or bad.
The federal government’s reading of the gross domestic product, a measure of the country’s total output of goods and services, had yet to be released at press time, but many analysts were expecting it to reflect an expansion of just a 1% to 2% annual rate. That’s compared to a 2.1% rate in the final quarter of last year and 3.5% in the third quarter of 2016. In other words, the consensus is a less than stellar first quarter performance.
However, the first quarter can be a bit “quirky,” says Bob Dieli, chief economist at the commercial trucking market research firm MacKay & Company.
“Weather has increasingly become a factor in [the] first quarter,” he told HDT in an interview. Remember the Polar Vortex in early 2014? The extremely cold weather in much of the country killed GDP for the quarter. And while not as bad, the U.S. did get hit with some powerful weather last month.
“I would not put a whole lot of trust in the first [GDP] number for the first quarter,” Dieli said. Each quarterly GDP performance can be revised two times with more complete data, including foreign trade. And it’s these foreign trade numbers than can play hell with trying to make sense out of the GDP when it comes to trucking.
As Uncle Sam counts it, when goods are imported, they count as a negative to the GDP. In contrast, export goods, because they are made in the U.S., are considered a …Read the rest of this story
