3 Trends in the Spot Freight Market
As FTR and Truckstop.com apply “big data” analysis to spot market pricing, Noel Perry, FTR transportation economist, offers some insights into the volatility of spot pricing and how spot prices correlate with contract pricing.
1. Spot prices have been rising more than contract prices.
The data being analyzed starts in the first quarter of 2008, just before the big downturn. Since the bottom of that recession, contract prices have averaged a 1% quarter over quarter growth (annualized). Even with the big decline last year, spot prices have averaged 2%. This is consistent with the big move of random freight from the edges of contracts into the spot market, Perry notes. Volume has built, and so have rates.
“I expect this trend to peak in 2019 with the coming crisis in regulatory drag,” Perry says. “After that is unclear.”
2. Spot prices are way more volatile.
This is no surprise, Perry says. The spot market is defined as the home of swings in random demand. The capacity pressure indices calculated by Truckstop.com and DAT both swing widely in almost lockstep. It follows that price changes swing widely.
The standard deviation of spot rate changes since the bottom of the last recession is five times larger than that of contract rates. “In case you have forgotten your college stat definitions, that means spot rate growth varies five times more than contract rate growth,” he says.
3. Both spot and contract pricing lag changes in capacity utilization.
With spot prices, the lags between market events and price response are short, perhaps up to a quarter, Perry says. The response is not instantaneous because truckers and shippers take time to realize that a change is required. There are also some small delays in the statistics. As big data (and forecasting tools) emerge, this lag should be shortened because market decision makers will …Read the rest of this story
