Trucking Activity Looks Strong to Start 2017
Photo: Cargo Transporters
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Photo: Cargo Transporters
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LAS VEGAS. “Truckable Economic Activity,” that chunk of the Gross Domestic Product that spends time in trucks, looks to be getting off to a strong start in 2017, according to Robert Dieli, president of RDLB, Inc., a Chicago-based economic research and management consulting firm.
Speaking at the Heavy Duty Aftermarket Dialogue event here, Dieli said he expects the expansion phase of the business cycle to continue through 2017. “Domestic events, mainly those surrounding fiscal policy are expected to have the most effect on TEA over the course of 2017 and 2018.”
The main components of TEA are consumption, investment, exports, imports and government. Dieli said the composition of TEA growth will continue to change. “We expect improvements in Truckable Fixed Investment and Truckable Exports. The adjustment to structural transformation will continue; of special concern is the implementation of electronic logging device regulations.”
Currently, 45% of TEA is consumption, 24% investment, 14% exports, 10% imports (imports are counted as a plus in TEA because they spend time on trucks) and government 7%.
Dieli said we are still in the expansion phase of the business cycle, but at some point there will be a boom and “we will begin to see economic instability.”
He uses something called the Enhanced Aggregate Spread, which is a nine-month forward forecasting model. “It is saying we should have expansion continue through the third quarter of 2017.”
Dieli spent some time during his presentation talking about how hiring patterns are a reliable indicator of trucking activity. General freight accounts for 69% of trucking hires while specialized freight (reefers, tanks, flat beds, moving companies, etc.) account for the other 31%. “Early in 2016 we saw a decline in trucking employment,” he said, “but that reversed itself and we have had strong increases in trucking employment since.” …Read the rest of this story
