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Royal Caribbean Can Make It Through to 2021, but What’s Next?

In ordinary times, you can count on cruise lines to turn a profit. But, alas, these times are anything but ordinary, and as cruise ships lay dormant in ports around the world, a rethink is in order just to ensure survival.That said, according to Wedbush analyst James Hardiman, Royal Caribbean (RCL) has enough liquidity available to see it through to February 2021 based on "an industry shutdown scenario.”How does Hardiman arrive at such a conclusion? With operations shuttered, Royal Caribbean recently said that its monthly cash burn rate is between $150-$170 million. But with the addition of further outlays such as hedging costs and debt service expenses, the figure increases to between $250-$275 million a month.In the meantime, the company has secured a $3.3 billion loan through a private offering of senior secured notes. After paying back loans amounting to $2.35 billion, Hardiman estimates RCL will have $1 billion left, “giving...