Economic Watch: Home Starts Slow, Overall Optimism Remains
Nationwide housing starts fell 5.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.14 million units in August, according to newly released data from the Commerce Department on Tuesday, the latest disappointing economic indicator, but there are still feelings overall economic conditions are improving.
“After two months of gains, the housing market gave back a bit in August,” says Ed Brady, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders. “However, with builders reporting low inventory levels and rising confidence, we expect more consumers will return to the market in the months ahead.”
Both housing sectors posted production declines in August. Single-family housing starts fell 6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 722,000 units while multifamily production declined 5.4% to 420,000 units.
“The August reading represents a one-month blip in what has been a long-term, gradual recovery,” says NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “On a year-over-year basis, single-family starts are up 9% while multifamily construction continues to level off at a solid level as that sector seeks to find a balance between supply and demand.”
Overall permit issuance, an indicator of future home building, edged 0.4% lower. Single-family permits rose 3.7% in August to a rate of 737,000 while multifamily permits dropped 7.2% to 402,000. Combined single- and multifamily starts increased in three of the four regions in August; the Northeast, Midwest and West; while the South posted an atypical decline.
The pullback in August housing starts, and particularly the weakness in single unit starts, has lowered expectations by the Royal Bank of Canada with it comes to third quarter residential investment, but there there are higher hopes in other economic sectors.
RBC Economist John Nye expects a modest 2% annualized decline rather than flat activity, although that would still represent an improvement on the nearly 8% annualized decline recorded in the prior quarter.
“We also look for ...Read the rest of this story