Author: Vitaliy Dadalyan

Economic Watch: Retail Sales Down Again, Inflation in Check

Retail sales in the U.S fell for the third straight month in February, according to new government numbers, pointing to slower economic growth in the first quarter. Separate reports about inflation showed it cooled at both the retail and wholesale levels.

The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that retail sales slipped 0.1% last month, while January's performance was revised upward to a 0.1% drop from a 0.3% decline. However, last month's performance marked the first time since April 2012 that retail sales fell for three straight months.

This latest performance was well short of analysts' expectations of a 0.3% increase for February. Despite the month-over-month drop, retail sales increased 4% over the past year.

So-called “core retail sales,” which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials and food services, moved up 0.1% in February following no change in January.

“Month-to-month comparisons don't tell the whole story because of seasonal adjustment factors, but the three-month moving average and other year-over-year numbers are better indicators that reflect how sales are really increasing,” said National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. "It's still too early to draw conclusions about the impact of tax cuts, but extra money in shoppers' pockets should help as the year goes forward. With consumer confidence and employment growing, economic fundamentals are favorable for spending to expand in the coming months.”

The three-month moving average was also up 4.4% over the same period a year ago. The NRF is forecasting 2018 retail sales to grow between 3.8% and 4.4% compared to 2017.

Analysts at Wells Fargo Securities sounded a similar note: “We remain positive on the consumer this year, even though the first look at consumption in January and February was not what we were expecting.”

It pointed out that consumer confidence surged in February to levels not seen since late 2000, primarily driven by the strengthening job market.

“However, ...Read the rest of this story