Analysis: The Uncertainty of a New President
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
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Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
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After an uncertain first half of the year in which economic growth and trucking slowed, leaving many wondering where things were headed, we finally got the economic news that we had been hoping for with third-quarter GDP. But no sooner were we breathing sighs of relief, everything becomes uncertain…again.
Government numbers released in October show the U.S. economy put on its best show so far in 2016, with the gross domestic product expanding at an annual pace of 2.9% during the third quarter. This is far better than the rate of barely more than 1% in the first half of the year and was even better than many analysts were expecting. Then November happened…
Specifically, the election of Donald J. Trump as the 45th president of the United States. Amid reactions ranging from great joy to deep anger, there was also a return to uneasiness about what his administration means to the economy.
For starters, don’t expect an immediate, significant effect, either positive or negative, when Trump takes office in January, according to analysis from FTR. Part of the reason is he “has little experience in quickly moving legislation through a skeptical (Republican) and hostile (Democratic) Congress.”
FTR analysts believe a Trump presidency will have little effect for much of next year, with the federal budget already in place and policies set until late in 2017. However, after that things could get interesting.
During this time, Trump, his advisors, and the Republican-controlled Congress will be looking at changing policies and regulations and passing new laws that could have a big long-term economic effect. Two of the areas most likely to affect trucking are infrastructure and trade.
Trump has said he wants to make infrastructure improvement a priority in his first 100 days in office. There’s little argument that our country’s infrastructure needs …Read the rest of this story
